04/02 Afternoon Briefing
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Cryptocurrency liquidations reach $290 million... Bitcoin enters long position defense zone.
2025-04-02T11:36:35.000Z
In a 24-hour period, around $287.93 million in cryptocurrency futures were liquidated, highlighting significant market volatility. The main affected coins were Bitcoin and Ethereum, with major short liquidations. Bitcoin is trading in a critical range between $84,000 and $86,000 with leveraged positions. This range is crucial as breakouts could lead to sharp price movements. The prevalence of short liquidations suggests a misjudgment of downside risks. Investors must understand these dynamics as they indicate potential volatility, offering both opportunities and risks in the cryptocurrency futures market.
The recent surge in cryptocurrency futures liquidations, totaling approximately $287.93 million, underscores the volatility within the crypto market, particularly for Bitcoin and Ethereum. This event reflects high leverage usage by traders attempting to maximize gains in a fluctuating market. Bitcoin's current price range between $84,000 and $86,000 is identified as a critical zone with significant leverage positions. A breakout from this range could trigger substantial price movements, either up or down. The prevalence of short position liquidations suggests an overestimation of downside risks by traders. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for investors as it highlights potential for sharp price corrections. The strategic placement of long and short positions around current price levels indicates a battleground that could dictate near-term market direction. As leverage unwinds, market participants might witness increased volatility, leading to either short squeezes or long squeezes, depending on the direction of price movement. This delicate balance presents opportunities and risks for traders, who must navigate with caution or face significant losses due to rapid market shifts. This incident also highlights the ongoing complexity and unpredictability of cryptocurrency futures markets.
[Jung-Sun Myung, Block Media Reporter] On the 2nd, in the cryptocurrency perpetual futures market, approximately $287.93 million worth of positions were forcibly liquidated over a 24-hour period. According to the liquidation map of Coinglass, a total of 122,506 traders were affected by the liquidation, with short position liquidations being predominant in Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH). Despite concerns over Trump’s tariff policies, it is interpreted that short position investors were hit as the prices of major assets rose. Bitcoin (BTC) saw a total liquidation of $75.63 million, while Ethereum (ETH) had liquidations totaling $47.88 million. On the other hand, long position liquidations dominated altcoins. The largest single liquidation occurred on the Binance exchange, with a $3.79 million long liquidation in the ACTUSDT futures position. # Bitcoin, Leverage Positions Clustered at 84K~86K Meanwhile, it is analyzed that Bitcoin currently has major leverage positions clustered in the $84,000~$86,000 range. According to the Coinglass leverage liquidation heat map, this range is considered a key level where price volatility may increase in the short term. Specifically, there are many short positions in the $85,500~$86,000 range, while numerous long positions are in the $84,000~$84,500 range. The current Bitcoin price is moving around $84,240, situated inside the primary defense line of long positions. If the price falls below $84,000, a long liquidation (long squeeze) may occur; conversely, if the support is maintained and a rebound succeeds, it could trigger short liquidations (short squeeze) accumulated at the top. Traders analyzed that since Bitcoin has currently entered a watershed range where short and long liquidations are matched, a strategic response keeping open the possibilities of both short and long squeezes is required.
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[On-chain Deep Dive] The Hidden Signal of the Coin Market: What is the VDD Multiple?
2025-04-02T11:35:12.000Z
The VDD Multiple is a significant on-chain metric that helps identify Bitcoin market cycles by analyzing the behavior of long-term holders. It builds on Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) by incorporating Bitcoin's price, offering insights beyond price trends. A high VDD Multiple, over 2.9, often signals market peaks and potential downturns due to increased selling activity by long-term holders. Low values, below 0.75, indicate market bottoms or accumulation phases. Its historical accuracy in predicting market tops and bottoms highlights its reliability for traders. The metric aids strategic decision-making by providing risk or opportunity signals based on market psychology.
The VDD Multiple emerges as a crucial tool for analyzing Bitcoin's market cycles by focusing on long-term holder activities. This metric extends the Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) concept by factoring in Bitcoin's price, offering a more nuanced view of market movement beyond simple price trends. High VDD Multiples, typically above 2.9, are historical indicators of market peaks where long-term holders are likely to sell, providing early signals of potential downturns. Conversely, low values below 0.75 suggest accumulation phases or market bottoms, where holders retain their Bitcoin, signifying confidence in stability or future growth. Over the years, the VDD Multiple has accurately predicted several pivotal market tops and bottoms, underscoring its reliability. For traders and analysts, this metric allows for better strategic decisions by identifying potential risk or opportunity points. Its ability to analyze long-term holder behavior offers insights into the psychological factors driving market actions. The VDD Multiple's effectiveness in past cycles demonstrates its predictive power, making it an invaluable tool for anticipating future trends in Bitcoin's market cycle. This could help traders mitigate risk and capitalize on predicted market shifts.
[Block Media Reporter Myung Jung-sun] In Bitcoin on-chain data analysis, the VDD (Value Days Destroyed) Multiple is establishing itself as a powerful tool for understanding not just simple price trends, but also who is actually selling, how much, and why within the market. It is particularly being used as a critical decision-making indicator among traders and investors because it captures the selling of long-term holders, accurately showing the peaks and troughs of Bitcoin's major cycles. # VDD extended from the concept of CDD The VDD multiple originates from the concept of Coin Days Destroyed (CDD). CDD is an on-chain indicator that assigns higher weights when coins that have not moved for a long time are transferred, indirectly measuring Bitcoin's 'spending speed.' For example, if a coin that hasn't moved for a year is suddenly moved, it's calculated as 365 Coin Days being destroyed. However, CDD does not take price variation into account. To complement this, Value Days Destroyed (VDD) multiplies CDD by the Bitcoin price. This creates a consistent indicator of trading activity, even when Bitcoin's price changes. Source: bitbo, as of 2025.04.02 # How to interpret VDD Multiple Like price, a VDD multiple being simply high is not necessarily good, and too high can be interpreted as a danger signal. Peak Signal: VDD Multiple ≥ 2.9 Long-term holders in the Bitcoin market consider selling when prices rise significantly. When the VDD Multiple exceeds 2.9, in most past cases, long-term holders have begun significant selling, indicating a precursor to price peaks. In fact, times when the VDD multiple shot above 2.9 have only accounted for less than 5% of Bitcoin's history, making it a more powerful signal. Bottom Signal: VDD Multiple ≤ 0.75 Conversely, there are periods when long-term holders leave their coins unmoved in their wallets. At this time, the VDD multiple falls below 0.75, which is usually interpreted as a bear market or accumulation phase. From an investor's standpoint, this period is seen as a potential market bottom. # The power of the VDD multiple in actual cases The VDD multiple has accurately captured several major peaks and troughs in Bitcoin's history. In late 2013, when Bitcoin reached about $1,100, the VDD multiple exceeded 2.9, and a long bear market began afterwards. In December 2017, when the price surpassed $20,000, the VDD multiple again exceeded 2.9 and a significant downturn followed. Both in April and November of 2021, when prices reached highs of $64,000 and $69,000 respectively, the VDD multiple sent warning signals. Conversely, during major bottom periods in 2015, 2019, and 2023, the VDD Multiple stayed below 0.75 for extended periods, indicating bottom areas. The VDD multiple does not merely focus on prices; it shows changes in the behavior of Bitcoin holders. Its ability to capture the selling activities of long-term holders makes it useful for analyzing market cycles. Even if Bitcoin enters another bull market, remember that if the VDD Multiple rises above 2.5, it may again be a moment to be cautious as in the past. ▶
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[Major News] GoMining launches a $100 million Bitcoin mining fund
2025-04-02T11:33:27.000Z
GoMining has launched a $100 million Bitcoin mining fund aimed at institutional investors. The fund uses Bitgo for custody, ensuring high security and showcasing institutional interest in Bitcoin. By reinvesting BTC rewards, the fund seeks to increase hash rate and improve mining efficiency. This initiative not only maximizes profits but also positions the fund effectively in the competitive mining market. Supported by companies like Metaplanet and Semler Scientific, the fund signals a broader acceptance of Bitcoin in corporate strategies. With a hash power of 7.3 Exahash, the initiative might significantly impact Bitcoin's supply dynamics.
The launch of GoMining's $100 million Bitcoin mining fund is a substantial development for the cryptocurrency market, particularly in the context of increasing institutional involvement. This fund, focused on institutional investors, demonstrates growing confidence in Bitcoin as a viable asset class for institutional portfolios. By using Bitgo's custody services, the fund ensures a high level of security and compliance, crucial factors for institutional participants. The strategy of reinvesting Bitcoin rewards to enhance hash rate and mining efficiency adds a layer of innovation to traditional mining operations. This approach not only maximizes profitability but also enhances the fund's competitive stance in the mining landscape. The backing by companies like Metaplanet and Semler Scientific indicates a diversified interest from various sectors, possibly signaling a broader acceptance of Bitcoin in corporate balance sheets. With a hash power utilization of 7.3 Exahash, the fund promises substantial contributions to network security and Bitcoin's decentralization. The fund's resilience to market sentiment could make it a stable investment vehicle during volatile market periods. Moreover, the news highlights a shift towards enterprise-level strategies in Bitcoin mining, potentially altering supply dynamics through efficient distribution and infrastructure improvements.
[Block Media] On the 1st (local time), Cointelegraph reported that GoMining is launching a $100 million Bitcoin mining fund targeted at institutional investors. GoMining is a platform that supports users in mining Bitcoin (BTC) through data centers. This fund will be managed under the custody of Bitgo and features a strategy of offering annual dividends based on mining profits and reinvesting Bitcoin rewards. The Alpha Blocks Fund was launched as more companies add Bitcoin to their balance sheets. These companies include Japan’s Metaplanet and medical technology firm Semler Scientific. A spokesperson for GoMining explained, "The Alpha Blocks Fund provides access to directly mined Bitcoin through a managed composite hashrate strategy." They added, "By reinvesting BTC rewards to increase the hashrate, we improve mining efficiency and generate profit-oriented results." This fund does not rely on market sentiment and includes practicalities that existing listed mining companies cannot offer. GoMining operates this fund utilizing 7.3 exahashes of hash power. The spokesperson stated, "This framework complies with relevant regulatory requirements and focuses on providing institutional-level access to Bitcoin mining earnings strategies." In 2024, GoMining announced plans to gamify Bitcoin mining using NFTs (non-fungible tokens). Following the launch of the first cryptocurrency ETF in the U.S. in 2024, institutional investor interest in cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum (ETH) is increasing. In March 2025, a Coinbase report indicated that 83% of institutions have plans for cryptocurrency asset allocation. * This article was published on April 2, 2025, at 04:32, and is resubmitted as a summary. View original text ⇒▶
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[Main News] Bitcoin gains attention as an inflation hedge... also has strong characteristics of tech stocks
2025-04-02T11:32:20.000Z
Bitcoin is increasingly seen as both an inflation hedge and a tech stock-like asset. Standard Chartered notes Bitcoin's close correlation with the Nasdaq, enhancing its appeal during economic uncertainties. This dual nature offers investors a diversified strategy to hedge against inflation and tap into tech sector benefits. Amid new tariffs and volatility, Bitcoin's role as a safeguard is growing, aligning with institutional interests. Compared to the Magnificent 7, Bitcoin could deliver higher returns with lower volatility. This shift underscores Bitcoin's maturation and its strategic importance in modern investment portfolios.
Bitcoin's evolving role as an inflation hedge while maintaining characteristics similar to tech stocks is increasingly acknowledged by financial institutions like Standard Chartered. The asset's correlation with the Nasdaq suggests its performance is influenced by broader economic conditions, aligning with tech stock behavior. This dual identity as both a hedge and a tech-linked asset offers investors a diversified approach to managing economic uncertainties. As inflation concerns rise amidst new tariff threats and economic volatility, Bitcoin's appeal strengthens due to its potential for both growth and stability. Institutional interest in Bitcoin is rising as it acts as a safeguard against traditional financial system risks. The comparison to the Magnificent 7 index positions Bitcoin as a potentially higher-yield, lower-volatility investment. This dual character broadens Bitcoin's appeal, making it attractive to those seeking both speculative gains and conservative hedging. The narrative around Bitcoin's stability and long-term value is further solidified by its increasing adoption in diverse investment strategies, reflecting its maturation as a global asset. Standard Chartered's analysis highlights Bitcoin's potential to deliver superior returns amidst economic challenges, reinforcing its role in modern portfolios.
[Block Media] There is a projection that Bitcoin will be regarded as a hedge against inflation and akin to tech stocks. Jeff Kendrick, head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered (SC), stated in a recent interview that the approval of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has heightened Bitcoin's correlation with traditional financial markets. Kendrick emphasized that Bitcoin shows a high correlation with the Nasdaq index in the short term, taking on characteristics similar to tech stocks beyond just being a hedge against traditional financial issues. He analyzed that adding Bitcoin to the Magnificent 7 group to create a virtual index results in higher returns and lower volatility compared to the existing group. This explanation considers the link between Bitcoin prices and Tesla's stock price, as well as Tesla's recent stock price decline. Since its early days, Bitcoin has been utilized as a means of defending against inflation. Recently, institutional investors have also been focusing on this, and Bitcoin's role as an inflation hedge is being strengthened amid concerns over new U.S. tariffs and economic uncertainty. Experts see a high possibility that Bitcoin will be evaluated as a firmly established inflation defense asset with global appeal. * This article was originally published on April 2, 2025, at 12:10 and has been summarized for retransmission. To view the original article, please click here.
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Final Viewpoint
Recent analysis of the Bitcoin and cryptocurrency markets indicates a multidimensional perspective on Bitcoin's current status and potential trajectory. Firstly, Bitcoin is recognized as both an inflation hedge akin to a tech stock, reflecting its correlation with the Nasdaq and its strategic importance in hedging against economic uncertainties. This perception aligns its behavior with broader market conditions, indicating both growth potential and risk diversification for investors. Secondly, the launch of GoMining's institutional fund emphasizes increased institutional interest in Bitcoin, reflecting a maturation of the asset as a mainstream investment vehicle. This institutional backing could bolster Bitcoin's market positioning, potentially stabilizing its price through enhanced adoption and infrastructure improvements. Thirdly, on-chain metrics like the VDD Multiple provide a granular view of market cycles, with recent values indicating either consolidation or distribution by long-term holders. This metric’s reliability points to potential market peaks or accumulation phases, advising caution in interpreting price movements. Lastly, the significant futures liquidation event highlights inherent market volatility, with Bitcoin trading within a critical price range that threatens to induce sharp movements upon breaching. This is indicative of a market in tension, where leveraged positions could dramatically shift upon breaking key resistance levels observed in recent trading. In terms of price fluctuations, the past week shows Bitcoin trading within a narrow range between approximately $82,000 and $87,000, indicating consolidation. However, in the last 24 hours, Bitcoin has experienced mild volatility but remains within this bracket. These factors, combined, suggest that Bitcoin is in a consolidation phase, balanced against potential institutional inflows and technical indicators predicting cyclic movements. Looking forward, should current levels hold, Bitcoin’s price may remain stable, with potential upward momentum driven by institutional investments and favorable economic conditions. However, breaking current resistance or support levels could lead to an abrupt shift, either soaring towards $90,000, aligning with increased institutional support, or correcting downward should long-term holder activity signal a market selloff. Therefore, traders should remain vigilant to these indicators and preparedness for potential volatility.
Viewpoint