04/04 Morning Briefing
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"Bitcoin decline just beginning... Bear market expected to last up to 6 months" - Glassnode
2025-04-03T23:38:19.000Z
According to Glassnode data, Bitcoin is experiencing a stagnation in price, remaining within the $80,000 to $88,500 range since mid-March. The data suggests a potential continuation of a bearish trend for up to six months. Bitcoin's futures funding rates are neutral, reflecting a market unsure of its next move, often seen before prolonged price consolidation. Despite these signals, the Bollinger Bands, a volatility indicator, suggest potential upcoming changes in price direction. The slump in the Realized Profit to Loss Ratio since January further emphasizes weaker bullish activity amid liquidity shortages and reduced investor returns. This mixed bag of market signals, while generally hinting at sluggishness, also calls for anticipation of possible volatility-driven movements.
This article presents a somewhat cautious outlook for Bitcoin, suggesting the potential for a six-month bearish trend, as indicated by a range of on-chain metrics and futures funding rates observed by Glassnode. Bitcoin's price has been stagnant between $80,000 to $88,500 since mid-March, showing limited movement towards a distinct trend. Futures funding rates, a marker for price direction and sentiment in crypto futures markets, remain neutral, suggesting a lack of strong bullish or bearish sentiment among investors. Historically, this neutrality in the funding rate implies traders are uncertain, often a precursor to price consolidation rather than significant moves. Notably, not all signals are bearish; technical indicators such as Bollinger Bands suggest potential volatility, hinting at a breakout direction yet undecided. Glassnode's data also shows a decline in Realized Profit to Loss Ratio since January, implying that despite upward tries, many investors are locking in profits or exiting at lower highs. This may indicate weaker bullish conviction, underscoring the liquidity challenges and declining investor profitability. Furthermore, an 'on-chain volume desk cross' pattern hints at possible negative trends ahead, correlating with past periods of downtrends lasting several months. However, the contraction of Bollinger Bands might signal imminent volatility, likely leading to a notable market move. This mixture of indicators underscores uncertainty but highlights potential upcoming volatility that investors might need to anticipate.
[Block Media Editor Jack Han] There is a forecast that Bitcoin (BTC) prices will remain stagnant for about another six months. On the 3rd (local time), Cointelegraph reported this, citing Glassnode data. Bitcoin has been moving sideways within a wide range of $80,000 to $88,500 since March 12. According to Glassnode, on-chain indicators are signaling either a greater downturn or an extended period of adjustment. # BTC Futures Market Shows Reduced Volatility with Neutral Funding Rate One of the key signals indicating the possibility of Bitcoin's price continuing without significant movement is the funding rate in the BTC futures market. The funding rate in BTC perpetual futures across all exchanges. Source: Glassnode. The funding rate acts as an adjustment cost between long (buy) and short (sell) traders in perpetual futures contracts, aiming to align prices with the spot market. When this figure turns negative, short position holders pay costs to long position holders, indicating a bearish advantage. Recently, the BTC funding rate has been hovering around 0% since late February, indicating a lack of decisiveness in the market. When the funding rate is 0%, the cost to maintain positions is minimized, reducing traders' pressure to close long or short positions, leading to price stagnation. Crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr. noted, "The average funding rate for Bitcoin on major exchanges has fallen to levels close to negative," and highlighted that in four similar instances, three ended with price increases and one with a decline. # On-chain Data, "Temporary Rebound Indicating a Larger Downturn" Glassnode in a recent report analyzed that "the rise to $87,500 on April 2 is not the start of a sustained rebound but a temporary rebound indicating a larger downturn." Glassnode also stated that Bitcoin's 90-day simple moving average realized profit-loss ratio has significantly declined since January. This suggests that there isn't enough resistance against profit-taking despite rallies within the $76,000 to $80,000 range. Bitcoin: Realized Profit-Loss Ratio. Source: Glassnode. The report diagnosed that "overall liquidity has weakened and the macro environment of decreasing investor profitability continues." Glassnode captured a "Death Cross" pattern based on recent on-chain transaction volumes, which historically predicts a bearish market for 3 to 6 months. # Bollinger Bands Indicate Possible End of Adjustment and Rise The Bollinger Bands, an indicator of Bitcoin's volatility, are sending opposite signals, suggesting that the Bitcoin price adjustment may soon end and indicating a potential market rebound. BTC/USD daily chart. Bollinger Bands. Source: Cointelegraph. The narrowing of the Bollinger Bands indicates an imminent strong price movement. Currently, the weekly Bollinger Band width is near historically lowest levels, close to the point where the last rally began. According to this analysis, Bitcoin could end its adjustment phase and show a strong upward trend within weeks.
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Bitcoin whales are on the move again... Market sentiment remains bearish.
2025-04-03T23:36:17.000Z
The article reports significant purchasing activity by Bitcoin whales, who have started buying again after a year, reflective of their confidence at the current price levels of around $80,000. This behavior is notable as whales, large entities holding at least 10,000 BTC, can influence market trends. Despite this buying activity, the general market sentiment remains bearish, as noted by Glassnode's Accumulation Trend Score, indicating that the market is still under selling pressure. The Bitcoin price remains about 25% below its all-time high of $109,000, reflecting the persistent challenges within the market. Whales are typically considered strategic buyers who buy during price corrections, but the overall score suggests that broader investor sentiment is yet to shift. This could imply further declines unless a market reversal is initiated by increasing whale activity or changes in macroeconomic factors.
The behavior of Bitcoin whales is a critical metric analysts often monitor as their movements frequently hint at potential market shifts. According to this article, whales have resumed significant buying after a year of relative inactivity, interpreting the current price level of approximately $80,000 as a buying opportunity. Whales, defined here as entities holding at least 10,000 BTC, represent strategic investors whose decisions can heavily influence market dynamics. Their recent purchasing activity might indicate confidence in Bitcoin's value despite broader pessimism in the market. The article also notes that while whales are purchasing, the overall market sentiment remains bearish, evident in the Glassnode's Accumulation Trend Score, which is low, reflecting the predominance of selling over buying among other investor groups. Typically, whale activity ahead of major market reversals or during steep price corrections hints at forthcoming bullish or stabilization phases. However, even with this high-level buying activity, the BTC price is significantly below its all-time high of $109,000, emphasizing the prevailing market pressure. With an Accumulation Trend Score at just 0.15, this suggests that the selling sentiment prevails, hinting at potential further declines unless broader market conditions or sentiment shift. Overall, while whale accumulation could precede a bullish turnaround, current general investor behavior does not yet signify an immediate market reversal.
[Block Media Reporter Lee Jeong-hwa] CoinDesk reported on the 3rd (local time) that Bitcoin whales have started significant activity for the first time in a year. The buying activity of these whales is interpreted as a signal indicating confidence in the current price levels. However, overall investor sentiment remains contracted, and downward pressure on prices continues. According to Glassnode data, Bitcoin (BTC) whales have begun actively purchasing. Whale investors refer to wallets holding 10,000 BTC or more. It seems that they started buying as the recent Bitcoin price fell to the $80,000 range. This phenomenon has been observed for the first time since August last year, during which whales actively purchased Bitcoin at the $50,000 to $60,000 level. In the past, the moments they showed buying interest were usually when price corrections deepened. Whales are often referred to as "smart money," tending to buy during large-scale corrections and sell when prices strengthen. The activity of smart money is considered an essential signal in the market. Market Sentiment Remains Negative Despite the purchasing movements by whales, the overall market sentiment remains bearish. Bitcoin prices have declined about 25% from the all-time high of $109,000. According to Glassnode’s ‘Accumulation Trend Score,’ most investor groups are passive in buying activities. This score tracks the wallet activity of various investor groups over 15 days, with a score closer to 1 indicating buying and closer to 0 indicating selling. The current overall market score is only 0.15, suggesting that selling pressure still dominates. Whales are showing some positive signals by entering into low-price buying, but since most investors are maintaining selling trends, the market price is likely to face additional downward pressure in the short term.
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Despite Bitcoin's hash rate reaching an all-time high, the price struggles.
2025-04-03T23:34:50.000Z
Despite Bitcoin's hash rate reaching record levels, indicating robust mining power, the price remains about 25% below its all-time high. The increased computational demands have pressured miner profitability, particularly with low transaction fees averaging around 4 BTC per day. This scenario is further complicated by the anticipated block reward halving, which could exacerbate profitability challenges. Some mining pools have reported mining 'empty blocks,' suggesting declining network activity. Experts like Nicolas Gregory highlight that for Bitcoin to retain long-term value and utility, it must transition from a 'digital gold' to a transactional currency. This calls for efforts to increase on-chain activities and enhance its commercial use to ensure sustained network and market relevance post-halving.
Bitcoin's hash rate, a measure of network activity and computational power, has reached all-time highs even as the price struggles, remaining about 25% below its peak. While rising hash rates often signal a healthy network, they also coincide with increased mining difficulty and have pressured miner profitability. With block rewards and transaction fees being primary revenues, miners face potential profitability squeezes, exacerbated by the upcoming block reward halving which halves the reward miners receive. The declining transaction fees, averaging only about 4 BTC per day, highlight potential pressures unless transaction volumes rise following this halving period. Notably, 'empty blocks' or blocks with minimal transactions mined recently by some pools suggest reduced on-chain activity, which could dampen overall network utilization. Experts like Nicolas Gregory emphasize the need for Bitcoin to transition beyond being merely a 'store of value' to a more actively used transactional currency. Without broader usage, limiting Bitcoin to digital gold risks undermining its adoption potential among broader user bases. The pressures on the mining economy and network indicators hint at the potential need for structural changes or adoption initiatives to sustain or grow the Bitcoin network's economic viability. As the network supports record hash rates, ensuring sufficient network fees and activity to support miners post-halving will be crucial, alongside encouraging broader transactional utility to maintain relevance.
[Block Media Reporter, Lee Jeong-hwa] Despite Bitcoin's hash rate reaching an all-time high, its price continues to struggle. According to CoinDesk on the 3rd (local time), Bitcoin blockchain's hash rate is consistently breaking records. The 14-day moving average hash rate has surpassed 838 exahashes (EH/s). On a 24-hour basis, it reached 974EH/s, its second-highest ever level. This signifies an increase in the computing power required for mining the Bitcoin blockchain. In contrast to the rising hash rate, Bitcoin's price remains approximately 25% lower than its all-time high. # Concerns about mining profitability Currently, Bitcoin miners earn revenue from block rewards (3.125 BTC per block at current rates) and transaction fees. However, with transaction fees at about 4 BTC per day (approximately $377,634), the situation is lackluster. This poses a significant pressure on miners’ profitability along with the increasing mining costs. Particularly, given the structural block reward halving every four years, maintaining transaction volume and fees is becoming a crucial task for miners. # Empty Block Phenomenon Recently, a Mempool developer named Mononaut noted that the mining pool Foundry USA mined blocks containing as few as seven transactions. This is the instance with the least transactions included since a block in January 2023 had only four transactions. The sparsely filled blocks are being compared to high-speed trains without passengers. Nicolas Gregory, founder of Mercury Layer and former Nasdaq board member, stated, “Half-empty Bitcoin blocks create a negative narrative in themselves. Simply considering Bitcoin as a digital gold-like store of value may lead to a bleak future.” He warned, “There is a need to genuinely use Bitcoin as a commercial transaction means; otherwise, the game is over.” The voices of experts urging efforts to actively utilize the network beyond price speculation are increasing.
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"Bitcoin, the perfect time to buy—$200,000 this year, $1 million in the long term" – Matt Hougan
2025-04-03T23:33:02.000Z
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan argues that now is the best time to buy Bitcoin, given the reduced risks and high-profit potential. He believes Bitcoin could reach $20,000 by 2025 and continue to rise possibly to $1,000,000 as governments and institutions increasingly value it. The emergence of Bitcoin ETFs and perceived diminished regulatory risks are highlighted as key bullish factors. Hougan stresses a supply-demand imbalance driven by institutional and ETF investment, which could drive prices higher. While Bitcoin's price movements may currently correlate with traditional stock markets, he anticipates a decoupling as institutional demand grows. The prospect of stablecoin law facilitating broader cryptocurrency adoption further supports his positive long-term vision for Bitcoin.
Matt Hougan of Bitwise expresses strong optimism about Bitcoin's future, calling the current moment the best time ever to purchase Bitcoin due to the reduced risk environment and greater adoption prospects. Hougan cites decreasing regulatory challenges, the advent of Bitcoin ETFs, and governments showing increased interest in Bitcoin as indicators of a positive outlook. His prediction of Bitcoin reaching up to $20,000 by 2025 and possibly even $1,000,000 aligns with an optimistic forecast regarding institutional investment, which has been gaining traction. An ETF's potential to absorb more Bitcoin supply than what is newly mined highlights the supply-demand imbalance that could bolster prices. Hougan also mentions how governmental policies like potential interest rate cuts might favor Bitcoin as a store of value against inflation. Despite the association between Bitcoin and traditional stock markets, he foresees a decoupling trajectory further supported by institutional demand. With significant inflows expected upon broader ETF availability, a potential shift in the market structure might enable Bitcoin to challenge gold's market position. The mention of stablecoin laws paving the way for greater cryptocurrency adoption underscores the broader financial ecosystem's evolution, influencing Bitcoin and other digital assets' market dynamics. Overall, his analysis paints a compelling case for Bitcoin's long-term growth despite its inherent volatility.
[Block Media Reporter Choi Chang-hwan] Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan stated that now is “the best time in history” to buy Bitcoin (BTC). He emphasized that the risk of Bitcoin has significantly decreased, particularly citing the elimination of technological and regulatory risks, the introduction of ETFs, and the strategic holding of Bitcoin by governments. In a recent interview with Cointelegraph, Hougan said, "Bitcoin is much safer than before, but still has great upside potential," adding, "There has never been a better time in terms of risk versus reward." He assessed Bitcoin's long-term growth potential highly but explained that in the short term, it could move in tandem with the stock market. However, he predicted that supply and demand imbalances, especially with the solidification of buying demand from ETFs and institutions, would eventually dominate the market. Hougan noted that “last year, the number of Bitcoins purchased by ETFs was 500,000, while the total new supply was only 165,000,” adding, “If governments and companies start purchasing in earnest, the supply shortage will become more severe.” Forecasting $200,000 by 2025… “A long-term possibility of $1,000,000” Hougan anticipated that the price of Bitcoin would approach $200,000 by 2025. He stated, “Governments will eventually lower interest rates and print money,” indicating that “such an environment is favorable for Bitcoin.” He further argued that “if governments, institutions, and companies around the world start to recognize and purchase Bitcoin as an asset, it could ultimately narrow the market cap gap with gold and even reach $1,000,000.” U.S. Stablecoin Legislation, a Turning Point for the Popularization of Digital Assets Hougan also spoke positively about the U.S. stablecoin legislation under discussion, stating that “if billions of people around the world could use stablecoins, a foundation for easy access to the crypto ecosystem would be established.” He emphasized that “if 2 billion people, rather than 200 million, start using stablecoins, the prices of Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL) would inevitably increase significantly.” He expects a change in the current structure in the United States, where many asset managers cannot recommend Bitcoin ETFs to their clients, in the near future. Hougan added, “Within the next three months, major platforms are expected to allow the purchase of Bitcoin ETFs,” and “this will lead to more inflow of funds.”
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Final Viewpoint
Recent analyses suggest a nuanced outlook for Bitcoin and the wider cryptocurrency market. Key indicators show a mixed bag of optimism driven by institutional interest and challenges posed by operational factors. Bitwise CIO's bullish stance anticipates Bitcoin rising significantly due to institutional buy-ins, potential ETF expansions, and diminishing regulatory hurdles. In contrast, increasing hash rates and mining challenges highlight ongoing pressure on miner profitability, with the upcoming halving potentially exacerbating this. Meanwhile, large-scale purchases by Bitcoin whales signal strategic confidence, although market sentiment remains predominantly bearish. Glassnode's data suggests a continued price stagnation within the $80,000-$88,500 range with potential for volatility-driven movements. Regarding recent Bitcoin price fluctuations, a week-long observation shows Bitcoin trading within the $81,000-$88,500 range, indicative of a stable yet potentially bearish phase due to high market resistance and sporadic buying. Within the last 24 hours, Bitcoin has maintained this range, reflecting both cautious accumulation by strategic investors and hesitations stemming from overall market uncertainties and liquidity constraints. Moving forward, while the short-term view suggests continued sideways movement with potential corrections toward $81,000, macroeconomic factors alongside ETF developments could see Bitcoin gradually reclaiming higher levels—potentially pushing upwards of $88,000 by increasing institutional activities if regulatory landscapes foster broader adoption.
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